From the hemp fields to Washington D.C., the cannabis industry faces more shifts in the year ahead.
Despite legalization disappointments from 2024, the cannabis industry is far from standing still as the calendar changes over to 2025.
A significant factor is that use of the plant continues to expand. And a key driver of that is hemp products. But the battle between federally legal hemp products and state-legal marijuana products will likely come to a truce of sorts.
The CEO of Seattle-based Cycling Frog put it succinctly to Green Market Report: “By this time next year, I don’t think we’re going to be having much conversation about the war between marijuana and hemp because every marijuana company is also going to be a hemp company.”
Additionally, integrating intoxicating hemp into legal cannabis channels could add $10 billion in revenue – a 30% increase over current levels, according to Morgan Paxhia, co-founder and managing partner at Poseidon.
That’s not the only shift cannabis operators will need to make, as consumer preferences are also shifting. Casual, on-the-go options are proving more popular for many post-pandemic – especially as wallets tighten. That means continued increases in sales of beverages, pre-rolls, gummies and vaporizers – and as a result more options from established operators, like Trulieve Cannabis Corp., are also making their way to dispensary shelves.
“Gen Z cannabis consumers are increasingly turning to vape pens over traditional flower,” said CCELL’s Nick Kovacevich, pointing to Headset data showing 37.9% of young consumers preferring vapes to flower’s 32.5%.
Federal legalization efforts
While those trends will be key to growth in 2025, efforts to reschedule cannabis – or even fully legalize it – at the federal level continue to overshadow most other discussions. The administrative hearing granted by the Drug Enforcement Administration was pushed into this year, but bickering over the witness list continues.
Industry leaders, however, remain optimistic. TerrAscend’s executive chairman, Jason Wild, took it a step further, saying he doesn’t think the industry will wait for a DEA decision. TerrAscend is involved in a federal lawsuit asserting that the Dormant Commerce Clause has already effectively made cannabis legal, and Wild believes that if the case reaches the Supreme Court, it’ll face “a panel of judges who are likely to view our argument favorably.”
On top of that, the expected pick of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services “is a good sign for the rescheduling process in February, with implementation likely in 2026,” Paxhia said.
Paxhia also thinks the incoming president’s choice for the next attorney general, Pam Bondi, may support more state control over cannabis policy.
Hurdles remain
Paxhia, however, warned that “reform-dependent” businesses face a tough path as cultivation capacity expands and prices continue their downward spiral in mature markets.
“Companies reliant on federal reform for survival face heightened risk,” he said, predicting many won’t survive through 2025 as cultivation capacity expands and prices continue their descent in mature markets.
The solution?
“Tuck-in acquisitions will allow leading companies to deepen vertical integration within their core markets,” he suggested, adding bluntly that “survival equates to success.”
The industry is ripe for such a shift, according to Viridian Capital Advisors; the largest companies are still only worth around $2 billion – pretty small versus leaders in other industries.
“No major U.S. industry has a leading player anywhere near that small,” the firm wrote. “So, as much as one side of the cannabis cultural divide likes to bemoan the hegemony of the big bad MSOs, we believe that the biggest of them need to become much, much bigger!”
However, there are signs that de-consolidation might also be possible. Viridian’s valuation gap measure – the difference between how the market values large versus small operators – has inverted for the first time in their four-year tracking history, suggesting the market might be calling for the decoupling of operators rather than more megamergers.
H/T: www.greenmarketreport.com
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